Here are 17 bold predictions for 2017 in Maine

For the uninitiated, every year I offer bold predictions for the coming year, guaranteed to be right, 87.64 percent of the time. This is something I’ve done every year since 2011.

Last year I correctly told you that marijuana legalization would pass, as would the minimum wage referendum; Emily Cain would again lose; Ted Cruz would win Iowa; and Hillary Clinton would select Tim Kaine as her running mate. I also told you that Leonardo DiCaprio would finally win an Oscar.

On the “miserable failure” side, I told you that ranked choice voting would fail, Marco Rubio would end up president, and that the state Senate would end up Democratic while the House would flip to be Republican.

So let’s try this again, shall we?

Bold prediction 1: The Legislature will pass a massive tax cut, and will increase funding to education.

Even Democrats know that Maine simply cannot be the second highest taxed state in the country and survive. The governor’s budget will propose a massive tax cut. He won’t get everything he wants, but a major tax cut will ultimately pass.

Bold prediction 2: Some major changes will be made to the marijuana legalization referendum.

The Legislature will keep pot legal, of course, but also enact new restrictions to attempt to address many of the dissenters’ concerns.

Bold prediction 3: Sara Gideon will have a difficult time keeping the Democratic House caucus together.

Only two defections are really needed on any piece of legislation for Republicans to score a win. A number of conservative priorities will end up passing this year.

Bold prediction 4: Gov. LePage’s relationship with the Legislature will be far less vitriolic.

The high-profile war of words that existed last session will not happen again. LePage will basically keep his head down and try to get as much done as possible.

Bold prediction 5: The tip credit will return.

There is no way lawmakers can let the tip credit for restaurant workers be eliminated. It will, mercifully, return.

Bold prediction 6: A major grass-roots conservative organization will materialize, finally.

Long a wish of the conservative base, the small, disparate conservative groups in the state will form Voltron and create a true grass-roots group that matters.

Bold prediction 7: Medicaid expansion will fail twice.

It will die in the Legislature again. Then, as Congress eliminates the 90 percent reimbursement rate and expansion’s cost explodes, Maine voters will say ‘no’ at the ballot box.

Bold prediction 8: Right to shop will pass.

A health care reform proposal I wrote about earlier this year will finally pass, eventually saving consumers millions.

Bold prediction 9: Susan Collins will decide not to run for governor.

The historic opportunity to get things done in the Senate will compel her to stay put.

Bold prediction 10: Bruce Poliquin will decide to run for governor.

With Collins not running, Poliquin will sense an opportunity as the highest-profile, most popular Republican in Maine.

Bold prediction 11: Poliquin’s run for governor will set off a mad dash for his congressional seat.

Some people considering a gubernatorial run will look at the newly open 2nd District race and decide it is a better bet.

Bold prediction 12: Mary Mayhew will announce a run for governor as well.

Mayhew may be one of the first out of the gate, styling herself the heir apparent to LePage.

Bold prediction 13: On the Democratic side, Janet Mills will announce a run early.

She will be viewed with suspicion by her party’s hard left, but will make the case to a party sick of losing that she can win statewide.

Bold prediction 14: So will businessman Adam Lee.

Lee has been buying digital ads for his business on political sites like Politico, and is very obviously eyeing a run for governor.

Bold prediction 15: Many names you hear mentioned for several offices will decide not to run.

But plenty of people we aren’t thinking of today will throw their hat in the ring.

Bold prediction 16: Nationally, the Democratic Party will be in disarray.

They will look a lot like the Republicans have for the last several years, with no leadership and lots of infighting. Donald Trump will accomplish most of what he wants and will end up having a very successful first year.

Bold prediction 17: My predictions for this year will be more accurate than those of last year.

Obviously.

Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to all.

Matthew Gagnon of Yarmouth is the chief executive officer of the Maine Heritage Policy Center, a free market policy think tank based in Portland. A Hampden native, he previously served as a senior strategist for the Republican Governors Association in Washington, D.C.