Maine’s famous underdog outwitted the pollsters

By Mike Lange
Staff Writer

    Since I’m on the mailing list of two out of three Maine political parties — I think the Greens vanished into the wilderness – I’m inclined to think that polling has been the hottest topic lately.
    As of last week, Gov. Paul LePage and Congressman Mike Michaud were tied for the lead in the governor’s race with Elliot Cutler bringing up the rear, despite his deep pockets and stellar showing in 2010.

    I’ve always read polls with a healthy dose of skepticism. But no matter whose side you’re on, it’s a foregone conclusion that the race for the Blaine House will be a tight one. The question, of course, is who will prevail at the finale.
    For those who are inclined to write off Cutler, for example, here’s a fairly-recent Maine history lesson.
    The late Jim Longley was a successful insurance agent back in the 1970s when Gov. Ken Curtis asked him to lead a state government panel to examine ways to make it more efficient. It operated similar to today’s Office of Program Evaluation and Accountability or OPEGA.
    Longley’s commission targeted several programs for their inefficiency and made solid recommendations that were embraced by both parties. With Curtis term-limited, some Democrats reportedly approached Longley about running for governor.
    However, George Mitchell and Joe Brennan, two Democrats with high-profile resumes, also had their eyes on the prize. Longley, with little name recognition outside of Augusta circles, passed on the offer to run in the primary election which was won by Mitchell.
    But Longley surprised nearly everyone and filed paperwork to run as an independent. His slogan was “Think about it,” which he also used at his insurance agency.
    For most of the summer of 1974, Republican Jim Irwin — a former attorney general — and Mitchell were tied in the polls with Longley running a distant third.
    But Longley, making his first run for public office, relished his role as an underdog. “The only poll that counts is on Election Day,” he cautioned everyone.
    As Election Day drew closer, the Bangor Daily News raised more than a few eyebrows by endorsing Longley.  Still, an Associated Press poll three days before the general election showed Irwin and Mitchell still running neck-and-neck with Longley trailing by double digits.
    Then a funny thing happened. Longley won 40 percent of the vote, followed by Mitchell’s 37 percent and Irwin’s 23 percent. The pollsters were shocked, but the people weren’t. Remember, this was 1974 – the year of the oil embargo. People were unhappy with politicians in general, and Longley struck a chord that they embraced.
    So is this a fair comparison with 2014? It’s hard to say. People today are unhappy about legislative gridlock, high oil prices, stagnant wages and potholes — just for starters.
    Realistically, you can’t compare progressive Elliot Cutler with conservative Jim Longley.
    But if voters take a “throw ‘em all out” attitude as they did 40 years ago, anything can happen on Election Day.
    So I’m inclined to agree with Longley about the “only poll that counts.”
    Think about it.
    Mike Lange is a staff writer with the Piscataquis Observer. His opinions are his own and don’t necessarily reflect those of this newspaper.