Opinion

20 bold predictions for 2020

I will begin this annual tradition of mine by acknowledging a failure of my final prediction of 2019.

In last year’s column, I told you that this year I would simply do a top 10 list, as the number of required predictions was getting unwieldy.

Alas, there is just so much happening this year that I can’t resist — 20 predictions it is!

1: Impeachment will fail
The U.S. House will end up impeaching the president, and put many House Democrats — including Jared Golden — in an impossible situation. Ultimately, though, the trial in the Senate will go nowhere.

2: There will be a failed effort to censure
In order to try to balance some kind of middle ground, a formal censure of the president will be proposed in the Senate. It, too, will fail.

3: Mayor Pete Buttigieg will win the Iowa Caucus
Many candidates will abandon Iowa altogether, and none of the remainers will really have a good argument for being better than him. He wins in a walk.

4: Bernie Sanders will win New Hampshire
Sanders’ only competition is Buttigieg, who could realistically give him a run after winning Iowa. But in the end, it will be Sanders.

5: The Democratic nomination will end very late, but Joe Biden will somehow win
Michael Bloomberg will be much stronger than people think. Buttigieg will stick around a long time. Sanders will never let it go. This may go to the convention. But Biden will end up with it.

6: Donald Trump will win re-election
Though he will win with fewer Electoral College votes than he won in 2016.

7: Susan Collins will defeat Sara Gideon
It will be the most expensive political race in the state’s history, and will set records that will not be broken for a very long time. But in the end, Collins will flex her muscle and beat Gideon.

8: Jared Golden will lose
Conventional wisdom holds that he is a good match for the 2nd Congressional District, and has done a decent job trying to be a Blue Dog. But his impeachment vote will be his doom in a strong Trump district.

9: The Maine House will remain Democratic
But the margins will be greatly reduced, making the body much more balanced.

10: The Maine Senate will be Republican
It will flip back, but only barely. I see a lot of 18 to 17 votes in our future.

11: Commercial pot sales will finally begin
Another near lock of a prediction. It will happen this year.

12: New Portland Mayor Kate Snyder will have a quiet first year
Unlike her predecessor, she will be consensus-oriented and won’t antagonize everyone. There will be bumps, but she’ll be well regarded.

13: The Legislature won’t do much
There are plenty of crazy bills coming up this session, but they won’t pass many of them as most lawmakers will try to avoid controversy.

14: The CMP corridor referendum will be on the 2020 ballot
They’ll get the signatures. You’ll be asked to vote on it.

15: The people’s veto on the vaccine law will succeed
Go where the grassroots passion is: Veto proponents would crawl over broken glass, while supporters of the mandate seem oblivious.

16: Paul LePage will decide not to run
I don’t think he will necessarily announce as much, but I think he decides against it in 2020.

17: Bruce Poliquin will announce a run for governor
After the election is over, Poliquin will announce a challenge to Gov. Janet Mills in 2022. He won’t be alone.

18: No Super Bowl for the Patriots
They’ll get to the AFC Championship, but will lose. The 49ers or Saints will win the Super Bowl.

19: The Yankees will win the World Series
Nothing pains me more to write. But after signing Gerrit Cole, I can’t see anyone beating them next year.

20: My predictions for this year will be more accurate than those of last year
Here’s to 2020!

Matthew Gagnon of Yarmouth is the chief executive officer of the Maine Heritage Policy Center, a free market policy think tank based in Portland. A Hampden native, he previously served as a senior strategist for the Republican Governors Association in Washington, D.C.

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